Statistics Profile

Bjorn Isaacson

2004

James Madison University Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2142	1764 - 2519	2142	3062
Épée	Direct elimination	2439	1971 - 2906	1972	2665
Foil	Pool	2007	1819 - 2194	1822	2475
Foil	Direct elimination	2242	2008 - 2475	1874	2600
Saber	Pool	1478	850 - 2105	1478	1921
Saber	Direct elimination	1892	1081 - 2702	1892	1958

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.