Statistics Profile

Ephraim Petersen

2006

Metro Tacoma Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2222	2051 - 2392	989	2223
Épée	Direct elimination	2421	2227 - 2614	1702	2426
Foil	Pool	1172	431 - 1912	1172	1268
Foil	Direct elimination	1706	416 - 2995	1706	1706

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.