Statistics Profile

Graham Johnston

2010

Alliance Fencing Academy

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	728	242 - 1213	653	1074
Épée	Direct elimination	1740	851 - 2628	1740	2077
Foil	Pool	1281	900 - 1661	1078	2025
Foil	Direct elimination	1999	1369 - 2628	1975	2914

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.