Statistics Profile

Cole Nelson

2009

Edge of America Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1500	1226 - 1773	1377	3168
Épée	Direct elimination	1806	1284 - 2327	1806	2921
Foil	Pool	1186	780 - 1591	1186	1480
Foil	Direct elimination	1416	661 - 2170	1416	1416

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.