Statistics Profile

Isabelle Ma

2012

Bay Area Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1711	1404 - 2017	1237	2260
Épée	Direct elimination	2223	1687 - 2758	2134	2845
Foil	Pool	1741	1566 - 1915	1028	1741
Foil	Direct elimination	2086	1915 - 2256	1207	2086

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.