Statistics Profile

Oliver Flynn

2009

Edge of America Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1101	732 - 1469	980	1339
Épée	Direct elimination	2083	1572 - 2593	1533	2083
Foil	Pool	1359	1187 - 1530	759	1527
Foil	Direct elimination	1524	1316 - 1731	970	1556

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.