Statistics Profile

Matt Seljan

2004

Cleveland State Univ. NCAA

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1832	856 - 2807	1832	1832
Épée	Direct elimination	1232	83 - 2380	1232	1232
Foil	Pool	1500	1274 - 1725	1373	1990
Foil	Direct elimination	1699	1345 - 2052	1699	2257

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.