Statistics Profile

Alex Little

2008

Wasatch Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1937	1748 - 2125	1360	1937
Épée	Direct elimination	2110	1820 - 2399	1715	2441
Foil	Pool	1243	1034 - 1451	793	1750
Foil	Direct elimination	1629	1261 - 1996	1511	1787
Saber	Pool	1591	1248 - 1933	1330	2037
Saber	Direct elimination	1826	1160 - 2491	1323	2147

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.