Statistics Profile

Ryan Kramer

2006

AIC Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1416	683 - 2148	1416	1416
Épée	Direct elimination	2068	671 - 3464	2068	2068
Foil	Pool	1476	1291 - 1660	1316	2121
Foil	Direct elimination	1685	1403 - 1966	1590	2040

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.