Statistics Profile

Colton Howard

1994

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	3000	1796 - 4203	3000	3000
Épée	Direct elimination	3408	2369 - 4446	3408	3408
Foil	Pool	1993	1648 - 2337	1955	2228
Foil	Direct elimination	2744	2186 - 3301	2744	3465

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.