Statistics Profile

Jonathon Hadd

2005

Bay Regional Fencing Alliance

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1765	1463 - 2066	1751	2085
Épée	Direct elimination	1478	764 - 2191	1478	2120
Saber	Pool	1934	950 - 2917	1934	1934

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.