Statistics Profile

Matthew Dreher

1996

Miracle Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2231	1629 - 2832	2231	2367
Épée	Direct elimination	2089	939 - 3238	2071	2089
Saber	Pool	1566	1240 - 1891	1339	1762
Saber	Direct elimination	1539	989 - 2088	1539	2921

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.