Statistics Profile

Nolan Orr

2008

Wallingford-Swarthmore Panthers

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1040	538 - 1541	1040	1174
Épée	Direct elimination	1260	201 - 2318	1260	1466
Foil	Pool	1200	664 - 1735	1200	1601
Foil	Direct elimination	1644	740 - 2547	1644	2093
Saber	Pool	1688	1031 - 2344	1688	1688
Saber	Direct elimination	1704	505 - 2902	1704	1704

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.