| Weapon |
Type |
Strength |
Estimate Range* |
Min |
Max |
* We're quite confident that the person's true strength is somewhere between those
numbers. For those statistically inclined, it is a 95% confidence interval of the estimate (i.e., μ ±
2σ).
Matchup against me
| Outcome |
Chance |
My strength change |
Their strength change |
| Log in to see the result of complex math. Or sign up if you are still not with the program unlike the cool kids. Make
sure you enter your USFA number correctly for this feature to work. |
Strength over time
The strength changes are summaries from all events of that day. The dotted line indicates that the strength rating is too uncertain.
Explanation
- The strength number is a numeric representation of how a fencer has performed against others
historically.
- The system "learns" your strength as you fence. It takes about 12 bouts for it to zero in on a good
estimate. This is why in the beginning you will often see wild fluctuations.
- An unknown fencer starts with a 2500 strength, but with very high uncertainty.
- Due to their different natures, pools, direct elimination, and mixed gender bouts are tracked
separately.
- The lowest possible is zero, average is around 2500, highest possible is around 5000. The scale is not linear,
which means that higher numbers are increasingly harder to obtain. To be precise, the distribution of strength numbers
looks like a bell curve.
- If you beat a much stronger fencer, your strength will go up by a lot. If you beat a much weaker
fencer, your strength will go up by little or maybe even not at all. Losses follow the same logic. You can
see detailed changes after each bout in the bout history.
- Probability of winning doesn't account for difference in fencing styles, familiarity with opponents, or any of
such things. It is a reflection of the difference in strength estimates assuming that both of you perform
just like you did against others in the past.