Statistics Profile

Aaron Pierce

1996

Fencers Club Inc.

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1829	1417 - 2240	1829	2002
Épée	Direct elimination	1816	1112 - 2519	1816	2301
Foil	Pool	1814	1403 - 2224	1814	1839
Foil	Direct elimination	1901	1138 - 2663	1901	1938

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.