Statistics Profile

Seth Shepard

1997

Fencing Club At NC State Apex Fencing Academy

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2617	1946 - 3287	2531	2968
Épée	Direct elimination	2850	2175 - 3524	2614	2887
Foil	Pool	1879	1449 - 2308	1710	2162
Foil	Direct elimination	2771	1837 - 3704	2294	2771

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.