Statistics Profile

Robert Oshima

2009

Cavalier Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1713	1548 - 1877	1172	1866
Épée	Direct elimination	1712	1508 - 1915	1265	2079
Foil	Pool	1037	622 - 1451	826	1056
Foil	Direct elimination	1504	898 - 2109	1504	1772

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.