Statistics Profile

Scott Abfalter

1966

Space Coast Olympic Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1922	667 - 3176	1922	1922
Foil	Pool	1101	647 - 1554	1101	1101
Foil	Direct elimination	1215	223 - 2206	1215	1215

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.