Statistics Profile

Noah Nelson

2003

Fargo-Moorhead Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1545	1047 - 2042	1545	2648
Foil	Direct elimination	2512	1702 - 3321	1877	2512
Saber	Pool	2921	1482 - 4359	2921	2921
Saber	Direct elimination	2079	640 - 3517	2079	2079

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.