Statistics Profile

Natalie Kagan

2014

Eminence Fencing Academy

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	353	0 - 997	353	353
Épée	Direct elimination	1534	307 - 2760	1534	1534
Foil	Pool	395	221 - 568	395	1309
Foil	Direct elimination	1100	903 - 1296	1081	1967

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.