Statistics Profile

Aaron Guthrie

2007

Orlando Fencing Academy

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1676	1238 - 2113	1650	1676
Épée	Direct elimination	2215	1531 - 2898	2215	2294
Foil	Pool	1311	1090 - 1531	1148	1334
Foil	Direct elimination	1393	939 - 1846	1217	1803

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.