Statistics Profile

Joshua Song

2012

Bergen Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	948	717 - 1178	948	1384
Épée	Direct elimination	1366	855 - 1876	1206	2079
Saber	Pool	589	209 - 968	589	851
Saber	Direct elimination	1155	426 - 1883	1155	1435

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.