Statistics Profile

Lucas Toyofuku

2012

Olympic Epee Masters

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1578	1406 - 1749	1211	1579
Épée	Direct elimination	1984	1774 - 2193	1782	2388
Foil	Pool	1015	840 - 1189	669	1015
Foil	Direct elimination	1388	1132 - 1643	1276	1565
Saber	Pool	994	527 - 1460	994	1466
Saber	Direct elimination	1365	587 - 2142	1365	1707

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.