Statistics Profile

Lucas Toyofuku

2012

Olympic Epee Masters

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1681	1514 - 1847	1211	1681
Épée	Direct elimination	1962	1760 - 2163	1782	2388
Foil	Pool	1043	869 - 1216	669	1043
Foil	Direct elimination	1421	1170 - 1671	1276	1565
Saber	Pool	930	491 - 1368	930	1466
Saber	Direct elimination	1353	585 - 2120	1353	1707

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.