Statistics Profile

Rowan Davis

2002

Appalachian State University Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1623	652 - 2593	1623	1623
Épée	Direct elimination	1502	306 - 2697	1502	1502
Foil	Pool	1221	761 - 1680	1221	2149
Foil	Direct elimination	1432	405 - 2458	1432	2079

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.