Statistics Profile

Apollonia Lay

2008

Avant Garde Fencers Club, Inc (CA) (AGFC)

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1786	1515 - 2056	1721	2988
Épée	Direct elimination	2297	1963 - 2630	2297	2672
Foil	Pool	1558	1385 - 1730	1460	3255
Foil	Direct elimination	1855	1666 - 2043	1549	2271

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.