Statistics Profile

John Thu

2001
Greensboro Fencing Academy Delta H Fencers
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Current strength

Weapon Type Strength Estimate Range* Min Max
Épée Pool 1626 1240 - 2011 1626 2116
Épée Direct elimination 1305 577 - 2032 1119 2079
Foil Pool 1368 1154 - 1581 1013 1454
Foil Direct elimination 1531 1149 - 1912 1273 2079
Saber Pool 1633 1184 - 2081 1594 1633
Saber Direct elimination 2095 1237 - 2952 2095 2336

* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

How it works

  • Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
  • The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
  • New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
  • Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
  • The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
  • Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
  • Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
  • Per-bout changes are available in bout history.