Statistics Profile

Soren St Clair

2010

Northwest Fencing Center

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1829	1662 - 1995	760	1829
Épée	Direct elimination	1947	1760 - 2133	1154	1968
Foil	Pool	771	111 - 1430	659	771
Foil	Direct elimination	1382	244 - 2519	1382	1701

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.