Statistics Profile

Ethan Croutch

2005

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1372	624 - 2119	1372	1372
Épée	Direct elimination	1624	387 - 2860	1624	1624
Foil	Pool	1565	1143 - 1986	1565	2560
Foil	Direct elimination	1546	459 - 2632	1546	2079
Saber	Pool	1274	745 - 1802	1274	1696
Saber	Direct elimination	1577	515 - 2638	1577	1766

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.