Statistics Profile

Orion Gaetz

2009

Alliance Fencing Academy

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1408	965 - 1850	1408	1826
Épée	Direct elimination	1634	867 - 2400	1634	1890
Foil	Pool	1060	685 - 1434	1042	1575
Foil	Direct elimination	1688	1025 - 2350	1513	2054

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.