Statistics Profile

Matthew Musselman

1999

Pittsburgh Fencers Club Georgia Tech Yellow Jacket Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1701	742 - 2659	1701	1701
Saber	Pool	1461	1168 - 1753	1317	1578
Saber	Direct elimination	1617	854 - 2379	1379	1634

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.