Statistics Profile

Lucas Hertzel

2006

Corsair Fencing School

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1213	637 - 1788	1099	1213
Épée	Direct elimination	2022	1019 - 3024	1742	2022
Foil	Pool	1275	978 - 1571	1275	2202
Foil	Direct elimination	1875	1354 - 2395	1748	2168

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.