Statistics Profile

Lawrence Hao

2006

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1348	989 - 1706	1055	1348
Foil	Direct elimination	1523	902 - 2143	1465	1987
Saber	Pool	2200	1211 - 3188	2200	2200
Saber	Direct elimination	2136	940 - 3331	2136	2136

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.