Statistics Profile

Elias Black

2003

Georgia Tech University Yellow Jacket Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1006	801 - 1210	461	1299
Foil	Direct elimination	1101	689 - 1512	965	1870
Saber	Pool	1454	925 - 1982	1163	1454
Saber	Direct elimination	2714	1268 - 4159	2714	2714

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.