Statistics Profile

Emma Wu

2011

Pegasus Sword Academy Inc.

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1028	849 - 1206	976	1261
Épée	Direct elimination	1198	931 - 1464	630	1275
Foil	Pool	358	135 - 580	179	1497
Foil	Direct elimination	800	395 - 1204	754	2692

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.