Statistics Profile

John James

2001

Miami University Fencing Ohio

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1294	921 - 1666	1051	1294
Foil	Direct elimination	1088	419 - 1756	1088	1867
Saber	Pool	1404	828 - 1979	1404	1601
Saber	Direct elimination	1412	372 - 2451	1412	1832

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.