Statistics Profile

Ryan Tan

2008
The Fencing Center Bay Area Fencing Club
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Current strength

Weapon Type Strength Estimate Range* Min Max
Épée Pool 1379 974 - 1783 1225 1379
Épée Direct elimination 1515 653 - 2376 1515 1785
Saber Pool 1753 1584 - 1921 923 1770
Saber Direct elimination 1806 1616 - 1995 1516 2004

* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

Matchup against me

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

How it works

  • Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
  • The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
  • New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
  • Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
  • The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
  • Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
  • Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
  • Per-bout changes are available in bout history.