Statistics Profile

Jack Phillipson

2001

Michigan State University Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	965	330 - 1599	965	1530
Épée	Direct elimination	1627	599 - 2654	1627	2148
Saber	Pool	896	622 - 1169	722	1289
Saber	Direct elimination	1612	1108 - 2115	1206	1774

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.