Statistics Profile

Jonas Novitch

2009

Harvard-Westlake High School Wolverines

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1581	755 - 2406	1581	1581
Épée	Direct elimination	1829	593 - 3064	1829	1829
Saber	Pool	820	186 - 1453	820	820
Saber	Direct elimination	1769	448 - 3089	1769	1769

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.