Statistics Profile

Matt Soskins

1976

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1589	639 - 2538	1589	1589
Épée	Direct elimination	2251	837 - 3664	2251	2251
Saber	Pool	2188	1893 - 2482	2155	2504
Saber	Direct elimination	2661	2003 - 3318	1942	2661

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.