Statistics Profile

Michael Xue

2012

LA International Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1858	1685 - 2030	968	1858
Épée	Direct elimination	2277	2109 - 2444	1650	2277
Foil	Pool	952	251 - 1652	952	952
Foil	Direct elimination	1418	186 - 2649	1418	1418

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.