Statistics Profile

Sierra Kate Lilly

2008

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1964	927 - 3000	1964	1964
Foil	Pool	814	89 - 1538	814	814
Foil	Direct elimination	1768	550 - 2985	1768	1768

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.