Statistics Profile

Kellen Cao

2009

Lotus Fencing Academy

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1396	731 - 2060	1396	1396
Épée	Direct elimination	2349	1081 - 3616	2349	2349
Foil	Pool	1556	1384 - 1727	871	1599
Foil	Direct elimination	1962	1767 - 2156	1031	1962

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.