Statistics Profile

Josh Li

2004

Western Reserve Academy

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1995	1482 - 2507	1995	3442
Épée	Direct elimination	1389	395 - 2382	1389	1736
Foil	Pool	1763	940 - 2585	1763	1763
Foil	Direct elimination	2079	640 - 3517	2079	2079

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.