Statistics Profile

Mark Niemiec

1963

Northern Colorado Fencers

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2123	1885 - 2360	1813	2398
Épée	Direct elimination	2507	2115 - 2898	2011	2507
Foil	Pool	1939	1642 - 2235	1522	1939
Foil	Direct elimination	1808	1159 - 2456	1808	2204

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.