Statistics Profile

Jonathan Guo

2013

LA International Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1001	835 - 1166	1001	1838
Épée	Direct elimination	1538	1354 - 1721	1160	1644
Saber	Pool	1384	683 - 2084	1384	1384
Saber	Direct elimination	2125	1116 - 3133	2125	2125

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.