Statistics Profile

Daphne Kelly

2012

Northwest Fencing Center

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	703	0 - 1466	703	703
Épée	Direct elimination	1619	440 - 2797	1619	1619
Foil	Pool	-226	0 - 147	-226	383
Foil	Direct elimination	778	104 - 1451	778	1740

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.