Statistics Profile

Nathan Coleman (Nate)

2007

Stevens Institute of Technology (University) NCAA

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1627	869 - 2384	1627	1627
Épée	Direct elimination	1740	685 - 2794	1740	1740
Foil	Pool	1381	1147 - 1614	1330	1879
Foil	Direct elimination	1643	1290 - 1995	1473	1787

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.