Statistics Profile

Caleb Mears

2003

Virginia Tech Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1603	776 - 2429	1603	1603
Épée	Direct elimination	1795	469 - 3120	1795	1795
Foil	Pool	1237	618 - 1855	1237	1457
Foil	Direct elimination	1541	424 - 2657	1541	2079
Saber	Pool	1281	672 - 1889	1281	1639
Saber	Direct elimination	1830	856 - 2803	1595	1830

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.