Statistics Profile

Toby Li (Toby Muhua)

2009

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	2758	2586 - 2929	1776	2758
Foil	Direct elimination	2675	2496 - 2853	1530	2679
Saber	Pool	1348	863 - 1832	1319	1348
Saber	Direct elimination	1999	1161 - 2836	1605	1999

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.