Statistics Profile

William Barnes

2002

Denison University Fencing NCAA

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2519	1791 - 3246	2519	2519
Épée	Direct elimination	1834	601 - 3066	1834	1834
Foil	Pool	2235	1425 - 3044	2235	2235
Foil	Direct elimination	1749	482 - 3015	1749	1749
Saber	Pool	2177	1953 - 2400	2133	2456
Saber	Direct elimination	2431	2107 - 2754	2323	2725

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.